New Yorkers keep asking me the same question: “Is it still a good time to buy in Miami?” My answer is always the same — it depends on which Miami you’re talking about.

The national housing picture is genuinely frozen. Apollo Global Management’s March 2026 housing analysis by Torsten Slok puts the numbers in stark relief: the average 30-year mortgage payment has climbed to $2,665 per month. Some 54 million households can only afford homes priced under $200,000. The median homebuyer age is now 59 — it was 31 in 1981. Sixty percent of existing mortgages are locked in below 5%, creating a powerful disincentive to sell. The national housing deficit sits at approximately one million homes. Nationally, nobody is buying and nobody is selling.

But Miami isn’t the national market. Miami is a split-screen.

Single-Family Homes: Still Competitive

Single-family homes remain supply-constrained at approximately 6.2 months of inventory. Demand is structural — driven by tax migration from high-income states, Latin American capital flows, and continued corporate relocations. Miami has quietly become the second largest financial hub on the East Coast. Correctly priced single-family homes in Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, and Pinecrest still move.

If you are a buyer targeting single-family, you are still in a competitive market. The lock-in effect that has paralyzed national inventory hasn’t hit Miami’s SFH segment with the same force, because Miami’s demand base isn’t primarily domestic move-up buyers — it’s international capital and domestic migrants who aren’t locked into existing mortgages.

Condos: A Buyer’s Market — With Caveats

Condos are a different animal entirely. Inventory county-wide sits at 13.7 months of supply — up 31% year-over-year. The sale-to-list ratio is 93%. Over 81% of listings have taken at least one price cut. Post-Surfside reserve law requirements, rising HOA fees, and escalating insurance costs have created real pressure on older buildings.

But even within condos, the market is not uniform. Luxury condo inventory in Key Biscayne, Coconut Grove, and Coral Gables remains extremely tight. These neighborhoods have the lowest supply and fastest absorption in the entire county. The oversupply story is a Brickell, Downtown, and older building story. Location and building quality are doing the sorting.

The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers: single-family remains competitive. Condos give you leverage — but due diligence on HOA reserves, insurance costs, and building financials matters more than ever. If you’re targeting Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, or Key Biscayne, don’t expect discounts. The supply picture there looks nothing like the broader market.

For sellers: this isn’t 2022. The market rewards precision pricing from the first day on the market. Stale listings get punished quickly and visibly.

The national lock-in effect is real. But Miami’s fundamentals — no state income tax, global demand, population growth, and FIFA World Cup 2026 tailwinds — mean the market here is already moving through the thaw that the rest of the country is still waiting for. The question isn’t whether Miami remains relevant. It’s whether you’re positioned for what comes next.