I spend a lot of time underwriting both real estate and tech investments.

But when I think about the first orbital data centers coming to market, I’m fairly certain my valuation model would return a 404 error.

Because some of the assumptions we take for granted on Earth simply stop working in space.

From “Location, Location, Location” to “Orbit, Orbit, Orbit”

On Earth, real estate value comes down to three words:
Location. Location. Location.

In Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), the equation changes:

Orbit. Orbit. Orbit.
And increasingly: ROO — Return on Orbit.

Why?

Because in space:

• Land is effectively unlimited
• There’s no zoning
• No neighbors
• No NIMBYs

Just an infinite number of “lots” floating silently —
with racks of GPUs quietly judging humanity.

So what actually drives value in this new asset class?

The New Fundamentals of Orbital Real Estate

1. Energy / Power

On Earth, we care about south-facing exposure.

In orbit, you get near-perpetual solar exposure.

That means:

• 24/7 energy potential
• Zero marginal cost for sunlight
• No grid constraints

For compute-heavy infrastructure, power stops being a liability and becomes a feature.

2. Cooling

Cooling is one of the largest operating costs for terrestrial data centers.

In space?

You’re surrounded by the ultimate heat sink.

The cold vacuum of space finally beats:

• chilled water systems
• mechanical complexity
• escalating energy loads

Sometimes the best solution is simply physics.

3. Launch Economics (The New Price per Square Foot)

On Earth, access roads matter.

In orbit, access is measured in price per kilogram.

Today:

• ~$1,500 per kg via SpaceX

That’s the equivalent of:

• land acquisition
• infrastructure access
• entitlement cost

All rolled into one line item.

Launch economics are now the gating factor — not land scarcity.

4. Serviceability & Maintenance

On Earth:

“Call a guy.”

In orbit:

“Schedule a rocket launch and hope nothing explodes.”

Maintenance risk is real.

Downtime doesn’t mean a technician is late.
It means your repair crew needs propulsion.

At some point, the investment memo starts reading like this:

Minor capex risk related to radiation, orbital debris, and the fact that your maintenance team requires a specialized vehicle.

Naturally, the Best Deals Will Be Pre-Construction

If this sounds familiar, it should.

Every speculative asset class starts the same way.

Pre-construction always offers:

• the highest upside
• the most optimistic underwriting
• the best stories

“Reserve your orbital pad now — prices go up once the second rocket clears the atmosphere.”

Phase I sold out.
Phase II includes optional shielding and a better debris profile.

The Inevitable Moment

I fully expect that one day I’ll hear myself say:

“Great asset. Strong fundamentals.
Only concern is last-mile access for the repair vehicle.”

At that point, orbital real estate won’t be science fiction anymore.

It’ll just be another asset class,
with very different fundamentals
and very familiar investor psychology.